Imagine that every car in America was an Electric Vehicle (EV) powered by a electric battery like the Tesla’s (Nasdaq: TSLA) Roadster. Imagine also that each and every car was powered with solar energy. Here’s a question: what amount of land would you need to generate the solar energy to power every electric vehicle in America? And how would that solar acreage compare with the land surface that the oil industry uses to drill today?

I did the numbers and the answer will surprise you.

Part of the angst with the recent BP (NYSE: BP) oil spill in the Gulf is that many think we are addicted to oil and therefore can’t stop drilling. U.S. Presidents since Nixon have proclaimed our addiction to oil and after announcing their plans for energy independence oil demand has gone up. I have a different view.

We’re not addicted to oil. We are addicted to driving.

It is highly unlikely that as a society we’ll stop driving anytime soon. The good news is that we can drive as we have been while not polluting the Gulf, import oil or use oil at all. The way to do it is to shift the way we power our cars – from gasoline to electricity – and power those cars with the sun. I have previously predicted that the last commercial Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle (gasoline car) will be built around 2030.

So assuming all cars in America are battery electric vehicles and we drove exactly the same number of miles we do today, let’s calculate how much electricity we would need to power all of them.

Electric Vehicle Battery Power

Americans drive around 3 trillion miles (4.8 trillion Km) per year, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation (1). How much electricity would be consumed driving all those miles?

I assume that Lithium-Ion battery can power an electric vehicle for about 4 miles (6.4 Km) per kilowatt-hour (kWh). This is slightly lower that the advertised mileage of three battery electric cars as shown on the following table.

Car Battery Size (kWh) Miles per charge Km per charge Miles per kWh Km per kWh
BYD E6 48 205 330 4.3 6.8
Tesla Roadster 53 245 392 4.6 7.4
Nissan Leaf 24 100 160 4.2 6.7

So 3 trillion miles divided by a mileage of 4 miles per kWh means that Americans will need 750 billion kWh annually for driving.

Now let’s calculate the total land needed by solar power plants to generate this much electricity in a year.

Solar Land Needs

The total power generated for a given land area will be given by the following formula
Power Generation = Land Area * DNI * Sunlight-to-power efficiency
(see the definitions and my assumptions below):

I’m using 15% efficiency and a DNI of 2,000 kWh/ m2/yr (see notes below for more).

Resolving for Land Area we get:
Land Area = Power Generation / (DNI * Sunlight-to-power efficiency)
= 750 billion kWh/year / (2,000 kWh * 0.15)
= 2,500,000,000 m2
= 2,500 Km2
= 965 square miles

So here’s the number: 965 square miles (2,500 Km2). That’s less than 1,000 square miles!

What this means is that a solar square with 31.1-mile sides (50 Km) could generate all the energy that would power every single car in America (assuming they were all electric vehicles.)

Ted Turner’s ranch in New Mexico is about 244 square miles – so he alone could generate enough electricity to power 25% of all cars in America. A solar plant the size of King Ranch in Texas with its 1,289 square miles could generate all of America’s electric vehicle power with 30% extra electricity to spare – maybe export it to Mexico?

The solar number is 1,000 square miles. Let’s compare this number with what the oil and gas industry uses today to power our gasoline cars.

Oil & gas land use

According to the U.S. House of Representatives, oil and gas companies lease 74,219 square miles (47.5 million acres) of land in the United States to drill oil. They also lease a further 44 million acres (68,750 mi2) for offshore drilling (1). Adding these two numbers we get that the oil and gas industries lease 143,000 square miles from the U.S. government—to meet just about a third of America’s transportation needs.

So to power just about a third of our cars, oil companies need 143 times the land that solar would need to power every single car in America (assuming they were all electric vehicles.)

Needless to say, oil drilling leaks and spills damage more land and water than the above numbers reveal. The BP (NYSE: BP) Gulf Oil disaster has damaged tens of thousands of square miles beyond its drilling permits. As of June 2010 the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Fisheries Services had closed an area around 80,000 square miles of water from commercial fishing.

The BP Oil Spill alone is eighty (80) times larger than the desert land that solar CSP plants would need to power every car in the United States (assuming they were all electric). And no one has ever heard of a solar spill.

The conclusion is simple: oil is not just dirty – oil is a land and water hog. Solar is more than 100 times more land efficient than oil – without the pollution.

What does this mean to entrepreneurs?

When the most abundant source of energy on earth (solar) is also is 100 times more resource efficient than the competitor (oil) the message is clear: the transition from oil to solar to is going to happen. It’s just a matter of when not if. As the car industry also transitions to electric vehicles keep in mind this solar number: just 1,000 square miles of solar plants in the desert can power all the (3 trillion) vehicle-miles driven every year in America. That’s what I call “Solar Trillions”!

Definitions, Notes and Sources

Battery Electric Vehicle range and mileage like gasoline car mileage will depend on many factors, including the car itself (weight, quality), driving conditions (city, highway, traffic, weather), driver, and so on. Furthermore, not all Lithium-Ion batteries are made equal. The number I came up with was based on a decidedly unscientific sample of three battery electric vehicles (Tesla Roadster, BYD E6, and Nissan Leaf) from three different countries (US, China, and Japan). I used 4 miles per kWh of battery.

DNI = Direct Normal Incidence radiation. DNI depends on the location. I’m assuming the solar plants are built in desert land in the U.S. Southwest, which generally have high DNI. A solar plant in Barstow, CA, may receive more than 2,700 kWh/m2/yr while Las Vegas, NV, or Tucson, AZ, receive about 2,560 kWh/m2/yr. I used 2,000 kWh/m2/yr.

Sunlight-to-power efficiency = What percent of the solar radiation (DNI) is converted to power. This number also depends on the technology used. Thin film photovoltaic might convert less than 10% while Dish Sterling CSP efficiency may be closer to 30%. Solar CSP with Combined Heat and Power (CHP) can have an efficiency of 75%-80%.

However, you need extra land for things like roads, power block, offices, and so on. I used 15% efficiency. Expect this number to go up over the next few years as new innovations, learning curve, and scale advantages kick in.

Sources:

(1) “The Truth About America’s Energy: Big Oil Stockpiles Supplies and Pockets Profits,” A Special Report by the Committee on Natural Resources Majority Staff,” U.S. House of Representatives, Committee on Natural Resources, Rep Nick J. Hall – Chairman, June 2008

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I was interviewed by Robert Linton on the Green Numbers Radio Show. Here are some excerpts and links to the interview.

Radio interview, Part 2

Robert Linton –There’s a worldwide water crisis right now. Tony, could you tell us the real relationship between solar and water?

Tony Seba – Sure. Water, as you may know, is very tightly linked to energy. You need energy to produce, transport, and clean water and you need water to produce energy. For instance, in California 19% of our electricity is used to transport water from one place to another.

Desalination, meaning production of clean water from seawater, has gone up 10,000 percent over the last forty years. In part, this is because there’s been growth in areas which already have a water crisis. Desalinating, cleaning water, is very energy intensive.

Saudia Arabia and other Gulf countries, for instance, burn about 1.5 million barrels of oil per day to desalinate water. This is about $120 million dollars per day to desalinate water.

Clearly, burning fossil fuels to power these desalination plants is not financially or environmentally viable. And so solar desalination is the only way to desalinate and clean water for the future.

RL: Wow, that’s amazing. You’ve spoken about the clean energy economy and it will transform other industries. Specifically, say, for example a data center, with their service, and trying to keep them cool, or maybe with a company with a sun chip as a food manufacturer. How can clean energy help transform those industries?

Tony Seba: One of the interesting opportunities that I explored and I found was that of solar air conditioning, solar chilling, which, when you think about it, people do a double take…“What do you mean solar, which is heat and chilling which is cold?” But in fact, to run a chiller, you need hot water, not just electricity but also hot water, and most of the energy that’s used in data centers… two thirds of it… two thirds of a data center’s budget goes into air conditioning, into chilling. So if you put these two things together, you use solar energy to heat the water, and then you use a chiller with that solar hot water to chill data centers. And that is one way in which solar energy will transform not just electricity generation but also will transform data centers and so on.

You mentioned food production. Frito Lay has a plant right here in California that produces SunChips and SunChips used to be made with gas and of course saying “Gas Chips” would not sell a lot of chips, but now they’re being heated with solar power. There’s this technology called parabolic troughs which concentrates the sunshine and it generates steam, which heats the oil, which fries the chips, and that technology is in use today.

RL: You know with solar energy, I know there’s going to be a huge impact as far as how it will affect life in the developing world. Say for example in the Marshall Islands in July of 2008, they had a blackout. How would solar help prevent that from happening in the future, could you talk about this incident?

Tony Seba: Yes, one of the big opportunities that I found, I call “island-scale solar” and the example of the Marshall Islands is one of them. The Marshall Islands went bankrupt in July of 2007 because the whole island is powered by diesel fuel which comes from oil. And in July 2008, oil hit a peak of $147 per gallon. These islands could not afford to buy the oil, so they went dark. And that’s not the saddest thing. The saddest thing is that these are sunny, perfectly sunny islands in the South Pacific and they were paying for diesel power two to three times what they could be paying for solar energy. And there are thousands of islands around the world that are in the same predicament… sunny islands that are paying two to three times for dirty power, what they could be paying for solar power.

And not only that, I can tell you there are millions of villages around the world that are pretty much like islands in the sense that they’re not grid-connected. Just to talk about India, there’s half a billion people who live in half a million villages that are not grid connected. And this is a problem, but solar power does not need a grid, so you can power all these half a million villages in India for less than what they are paying today for diesel or kerosene.

RL: You know, Tony, a lot of my listeners are investors… could you tell us about the one or the two trillion dollar opportunities that our listeners may not have heard of, or maybe some market opportunity that you see that really scaled to market?

Tony Seba: Absolutely. The book has many, but let me give you two, and we started the conversation about two multi-trillion dollar opportunities. One of them is solar air conditioning. The peak rates that we pay for electricity in the United States are when the sun is heating the most. So we’re paying for air conditioning, for instance, 40 cents, 50 cents, and the new rate in California is $1 per kilowatt hour, when you could perfectly have a solar air conditioner which is basically solar receivers on top of your house with a chiller that can generate pretty much electricity for free. And this is a multitrillion dollar opportunity. You can use solar chillers, like I said, for data centers, for houses, for buildings, for warehouses… There’s going to be a massive transformation that’s going to generate solar chilling.

Another one is what I mentioned, village-scale solar which involves villages around the world that are not grid-connected which can generate their own power with solar. Just to give you an example, just to tell you how exciting this is for me, I taught this course, the “Clean energy Market and Investment opportunities” course last Fall at Stanford and at least (to my knowledge) half a dozen folks who took that course went on, basically left their jobs, to start solar-related clean-energy companies, and one at least, has got offers from investors to invest in them. This is only after a few months. It’s so exciting that it’s already happening so quickly.

RL.: How do you compare this emergence with Silicon Valley in the past, and also, Tony, is America leading the way for the clean energy revolution?

Tony Seba: That is a good question. We are building great technologies, we in Silicon valley we are used to building technologies and putting them in the market, in companies and so on. In the past, we really did not need anyone else to do this, so we built Cisco, Apple and Intel, Google and so on. But clean energy, energy itself, is very different, because in energy, the biggest driver, the main driver, is government policy. Energy companies have been subsidized and are being subsidized by one account, 200 billion dollars go into subsidies for fossil fuel energy, coal, oil, and nukes every single year…

RL: It doesn’t make sense anymore.

Tony Seba: It doesn’t. But not only that, the laws and the rules, the land use regulation are stacked in favor of incumbents of fossil fuel energies. So we need the right policies from Washington, from Sacramento, from the government, to make clean energy happen. And I’m not talking about subsidies to solar, I’m talking about the need to stop subsidizing the fossil fuel industry, which, by the way, is the largest industry and the most profitable industry in the world. In that sense, Silicon Valley is not really leading the clean energy economy. Countries like Germany that have had the right policies over the last 10 to 15 years have created a couple hundred thousand clean energy jobs, and they lead, for instance, in solar photovoltaics.

RL: Tony, I’d like to thank you for coming on my show today. I would like to welcome you back when you come back, I know you have a trip overseas to look at some prospects for investments. When you get back I’d like to have you come back on the air. I really appreciate you coming on today, and all my listeners, definitely pick up his book, Solar trillions, you can go to tonyseba.com to look at his website. Tony, thank you very much.

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Tony Seba Interview on the Green Numbers Radio Show (Part 1)

June 12, 2010

I was interviewed by Robert Linton on the Green Numbers Radio Show. Here are some excerpts and links to the interview.
Radio interview, Part 1
//

Excerpts:
Robert Linton – This is Robert Linton, your host for Green Numbers Radio Ask the Experts Show. Tony, for you new book Solar Trillions, what is the premise?
Tony [...]

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Who is the eBay of Electricity 2.0?

May 25, 2010

Imagine a world where you can buy electricity from your choice of vendor (not the utility) at prices that can be negotiated with the vendor. Kind of like shopping at eBay or Amazon. Want to buy a week’s worth (1,000 kWh) of power from SebaSolar at 9 ¢/kWh? Just click here. How about switching to [...]

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Clean solar leads drive away from dirty oil

May 24, 2010

[Note: this Op-Ed was published by the San Francisco Chronicle Sunday May 23, 2010]
Most energy-industry accidents are small, so we don’t notice them. But every so often we wake up to really horrifying spectacles: the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil tanker accident, the 2008 coal ash mega-spill in Kingston, Tenn., the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear disaster – [...]

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Video: Villlage Scale Solar

May 15, 2010

Tony Seba describes “Village Scale Solar” and entrepreneurial opportunities around the world.
- Half a billion people in 500,000 villages in India alone are not connected to the grid. Two billion people around the world get their energy from kerosene or diesel at rates up to 10 times todays solar cost. But solar PV doesnt need a grid.

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What is Solar Power Tower?

May 5, 2010

Solar Power Tower is one of the most important technologies in the emerging clean energy economy. I went to Spain to visit the first commercial power tower in the world. The PS10 tower has a height of 330 feet (110 m) PS10 tower and has a generating capacity of 11MW. Launched in the fall of 2006, it generates 24.3 GWh of electricity per year.

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Are You Ready For Free Energy?

April 19, 2010

As BIPV follows the downward technology cost curve, solar tiles, solar bricks, and solar windows will approach (maybe beat) the cost of traditional tiles, bricks, and windows. BIPV homes will not just sit there: they will be personal power plants. The energy they generate will be essentially free.

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How Clean is San Diego’s Water Desalination Plant?

April 7, 2010

Water desalination is energy intensive. Desalination plants follow the traditional energy pattern: most of the energy comes from burning fossil fuels. Burning coal to clean water seems dysfunctional, to put it mildly. Clean water needs clean energy. Burning fossil fuels to clean seawater or brackish water is unsustainable and unaffordable in the long term.

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Video: Energy, Water, and the coming Humanitarian Crisis in Yemen

March 11, 2010

Energy and Water are tightly linked. We are going to reach ‘Peak Water’ before we hit ‘Peak Oil’. This video, from Tony Seba’s Stanford University course “Clean Energy Market and Investment Opportunities”, introduces the topic of water and shows how Yemen is facing a massive humanitarian crisis. In 10 years 2 milliion people will have no water and nowhere to go. This water crisis may have global repercussions. The solution is simple: solar power and solar desalination. More in Tony Seba’s book “Solar Trillions”: http://bit.ly/ac1wAF

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