Can Egypt join the ranks of Energy World Powers?

If Egypt were to realize less than one percent of its solar energy potential, it could be a larger energy producer than all the Middle East oil exporters put together.   It could power the energy needs of its growing population and could be a net exporter of solar electricity to Europe.

How large is Egypt’s potential?  To find out let’s look at one of Egypt’s engineering achievements: the Aswan hydroelectric plant.  To generate 2.1 GW Egypt created Lake Nasser, a 6,000 Km2 (2,300 square miles) artificial lake.  What if Egypt took the equivalent land mass (6,000 Km2) and built solar plants? How much power could that generate?

A Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) plant the size of Lake Nasser (which powers the Aswan hydro plant) could generate the equivalent of about 9 billion barrels of oil per year. This is equivalent to oil production from the whole Middle East! (1)  This could be done using today’s technology (which is rapidly improving in efficiency and decreasing in cost!)

Egypt’s total land mass is about 1 million Km2, most of which is uninhabited deserts.  Basically we’re talking about taking 0.6% of the land mass of this country to turn it into an energy world power!

Distributing the power

How would Egypt distribute all that energy to gigawatt-hungry nations? Right now, Egypt’s transmission grid is connected to Jordan, Syria, and Turkey to the northeast. To the west it is building an interconnection with Libya, which is also working on a link with Tunisia that will be connected to Morocco and Spain. Spain is connected to Portugal and has a small connection with France.  Of course, selling to Europe through that old grid would not be efficient.

New Zealand already powers the North Island with power generated in the South Island—with HVDC transmission lines underwater between the two islands. The same could be done in the Mediterranean.  I will later talk specifically about HVDC lines. Suffice it to say that it only leaks 3% every 1,000 Km.

Furthermore, the cost of producing solar power is rapidly falling. It is expected to fall to the equivalent of oil at $20 per barrel by 2020 and to $15 per barrel beyond that point. Remember that oil hit $147 in 2008 and is now hovering around $80 per barrel now.  So Egypt could generate power at 10-25% of what it pays today.

Yet despite Egypt’s superior solar resources and export possibilities, 83% of that nation’s electricity today comes from burning oil or natural gas—which is quite expensive and released 34 million tons of carbon into the atmosphere (about half a million tons per Egyptian.)

Egypt can certainly build solar plants. This country has built massive civil engineering projects like the Aswan Dam and the Suez Canal. Can this country rise to the challenge of making itself an energy world power? Two centuries after Napoleon’s military power invaded Egypt, Cairo can turn the tables by exporting solar power back to Europe. This time, though, it would be a peaceful mutually beneficial endeavor—using solar energy and HVDC lines.

Egypt could go from a net importer of expensive energy to a net exporter of energy.  It could create a massive number of jobs building and operating solar power plants and it could attract companies like data center operators seeking abundant and inexpensive energy.

Egyptian entrepreneurs, investors, and policy-makers have the opportunity to create massive wealth, a more prosperous economy, a high standard of living for its population, and a brighter and cleaner future.

Doing the numbers

All the numbers here come from Franz Trieb and his team at the German Aerospace Center (DLR). (1)  Take a look at the numbers and let me know what you think!

Assumptions:
Solar irradiance = 2,400 kWh/m2/yr
Solar-to-electric net efficiency = 11%
Land use = 95% land use (linear fresnel)
Heating value of 1 Barrel of oil = 1,600 kWh

Solar Power generation per year per Km2 = 1 million m2  * 2,400 KWh/m2/yr

Oil-equivalent Solar Power per Km2 per year =  1 million m2  * 2,400 kWh/m2/yr / 1,600 kWh  = 1.5 million barrels of oil/km2/yr

Lake Nasser has 6,000 Km2 so the total solar power the equivalent land could generate would be = 6,000 Km2 x 1.5 million barrel = 9 billion barrel/yr

According to the U.S. Energy Informatio Agency (EIA) total Middle East Oil production in 2006 was about 9.2 billion barrels – or about 31% of the world total.

Sources:
(1)    Franz Trieb et al,”AQUA-CSP – Concentrating Solar Power for Water Desalination” German Aerospace Center 2007
(2)    ”Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Technology and Performance Forecasts,” Sargent & Lundy, 2003